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archives

Federal Reserve System

This tag is associated with 2 posts

Utilizing Revealed Biases to Get a More Likely Forecast of Real GDP Growth [Wonky]

(Analysis) Forecasts of real GDP growth by the Federal Reserve System (Fed) have consistently been too optimistic since the end of the 2008-9 recession. Simply taking their June 2011 forecast for 2012 and comparing it to realized growth of real GDP in 2012, and doing the same for their June 2012 forecast for 2013 and … Continue reading

Concerns over Succession at Fed Likely Trumping Desire for Simple Transparency

(Analysis) Chairman Bernanke gave forward-looking guidance of Fed policy last week that left markets in some degree of chaos. By stating that continued quantitative easing (QE) would be contingent on an unemployment rate of 7+%, and revealing optimistic forecasts by the Fed of the unemployment rate, Bernanke was interpreted by markets to mean that “tapering” … Continue reading