This tag is associated with 21 posts

Estimate for Manufacturing Employment in Buffalo Area Indicates Improvement Since Recession Depths

(WNY) Officially released data for the Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY, metro area suggest continuation of a decades-long trend of decline in manufacturing employment. This negative trend is possibly weakening, though, as an estimate for the overall number of people employed in manufacturing during 2013 on an annual basis is higher than a simple trend estimate would … Continue reading

How Sweet It Is! Approaching a Recovery Milestone

(Analysis) This (final) quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014 will probably bring reports of many “real” measures of economic performance back to par with levels achieved before the recession of 2008-9 (see graph at top left). This should be cause for some celebration, coming after about 6 years of continuously depressed measurements … Continue reading

Economic Recovery in Buffalo Area Still Lagging Other US Metro Areas

(Buffalo, NY) Statistics released this year in September by the BEA indicate that the economic recovery in the Buffalo metro area is relatively sluggish. Growth of private-sector real GDP for each full year of recovery since the recession of 2008-9 is lower in the Buffalo metro area than for all US metro areas as a … Continue reading

Counteracting “Hysteresis”

(Analysis) Good observations and discussion about analysis showing estimates of lost potential in the US economy is ongoing. The analysis [pdf] suggests that through disuse, US factors of production are deteriorating, causing a longer period of time when the total value of goods and services capable of being produced in the US economy is reduced. … Continue reading

Putting a Number on the Damage Done

(Analysis) A paper [pdf], presented by employees of the Federal Reserve at an annual conference sponsored by the IMF, is getting deserved attention in various media outlets. This is important, if the analysis in the paper is ever going to contribute to policy-making here in the US. What the analysis shows is that there is … Continue reading

The Damage Done: Recovery Would Now Require Massive Investment that Won’t be Soon Forthcoming

(Editorial) This content might be viewed as an informed observation based on continued non-recovery of the US economy. Economists have noted that factors of production can deteriorate through years of disuse. This is now likely occurring in the US. Many cite the case of WWII as an example when productivity proved resilient – after more … Continue reading

Is There a Growing Hole in the Official Economy? [Wonky]

(Analysis) Since the large job loss of the 2008-9 recession, reported measures of output and employment in the US economy remain very subdued. Good measures for labor utilization show no employment recovery of this production factor. Output remains depressed as well. Both measures strongly exhibit a (permanent?) shift downwards from the 2008-9 recession. An important … Continue reading

Utilizing Revealed Biases to Get a More Likely Forecast of Real GDP Growth [Wonky]

(Analysis) Forecasts of real GDP growth by the Federal Reserve System (Fed) have consistently been too optimistic since the end of the 2008-9 recession. Simply taking their June 2011 forecast for 2012 and comparing it to realized growth of real GDP in 2012, and doing the same for their June 2012 forecast for 2013 and … Continue reading

Policymakers Have Failed to Restore the Temple

(Editorial) In his first Inaugural Address, President Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) remarked that the money changers had “fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilization”. Shortly thereafter, New Dealers began to establish a new regime which would endure through the early 1970s. This regime proved remarkably stable, and it delivered prosperity to … Continue reading

Austerity Holding Back US Recovery as GDP Growth Revised Downwards to 1.8%

(Analysis) The US BEA revised downwards the rate of growth (annualized) during the first quarter of 2013 by 0.6% to 1.8%. This is a relatively large revision for a third and final revision to real GDP, so it is safe to assume that this new estimate is a surprise to many observers. The BEA identifies … Continue reading

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