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Economic recovery

This tag is associated with 21 posts

How Sweet It Is! Approaching a Recovery Milestone

(Analysis) This (final) quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014 will probably bring reports of many “real” measures of economic performance back to par with levels achieved before the recession of 2008-9 (see graph at top left). This should be cause for some celebration, coming after about 6 years of continuously depressed measurements … Continue reading

Economic Recovery in Buffalo Area Still Lagging Other US Metro Areas

(Buffalo, NY) Statistics released this year in September by the BEA indicate that the economic recovery in the Buffalo metro area is relatively sluggish. Growth of private-sector real GDP for each full year of recovery since the recession of 2008-9 is lower in the Buffalo metro area than for all US metro areas as a … Continue reading

Counteracting “Hysteresis”

(Analysis) Good observations and discussion about analysis showing estimates of lost potential in the US economy is ongoing. The analysis [pdf] suggests that through disuse, US factors of production are deteriorating, causing a longer period of time when the total value of goods and services capable of being produced in the US economy is reduced. … Continue reading

Putting a Number on the Damage Done

(Analysis) A paper [pdf], presented by employees of the Federal Reserve at an annual conference sponsored by the IMF, is getting deserved attention in various media outlets. This is important, if the analysis in the paper is ever going to contribute to policy-making here in the US. What the analysis shows is that there is … Continue reading

The Damage Done: Recovery Would Now Require Massive Investment that Won’t be Soon Forthcoming

(Editorial) This content might be viewed as an informed observation based on continued non-recovery of the US economy. Economists have noted that factors of production can deteriorate through years of disuse. This is now likely occurring in the US. Many cite the case of WWII as an example when productivity proved resilient – after more … Continue reading

Is There a Growing Hole in the Official Economy? [Wonky]

(Analysis) Since the large job loss of the 2008-9 recession, reported measures of output and employment in the US economy remain very subdued. Good measures for labor utilization show no employment recovery of this production factor. Output remains depressed as well. Both measures strongly exhibit a (permanent?) shift downwards from the 2008-9 recession. An important … Continue reading

The Deathblow to Automatic Stabilizers

(Analysis) A true free-market revolution began with the Administration of President Ronald Reagan (R). The notion that the root of all problems in the US could be attributed to government became a rallying cry among a new breed of populists. This anti-government populism thrives today in the Tea-Party movement. It is very likely responsible for … Continue reading

New JOLTS Report Shows More of the Same: No Change to Employment Situation

(Analysis) The BLS released its report of analysis about the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) today. There are some snippets from the news release below. No surprises, really – just more of the same. “The number of job openings in May was 3.8 million, little changed from April.” “The number of job openings … Continue reading

ADP Employment Report Shows More of the Same

(Analysis) Today’s employment report from the ADP Research Institute continues to show that private-sector employment is still below pre-recessionary levels, four years after the accepted end of the recession of 2008-9. This measure of lackluster economic performance does not even factor in an increase to the US population since the recession. While employment by service-providing … Continue reading

Austerity Holding Back US Recovery as GDP Growth Revised Downwards to 1.8%

(Analysis) The US BEA revised downwards the rate of growth (annualized) during the first quarter of 2013 by 0.6% to 1.8%. This is a relatively large revision for a third and final revision to real GDP, so it is safe to assume that this new estimate is a surprise to many observers. The BEA identifies … Continue reading