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Utilizing Revealed Biases to Get a More Likely Forecast of Real GDP Growth [Wonky]

(Analysis) Forecasts of real GDP growth by the Federal Reserve System (Fed) have consistently been too optimistic since the end of the 2008-9 recession. Simply taking their June 2011 forecast for 2012 and comparing it to realized growth of real GDP in 2012, and doing the same for their June 2012 forecast for 2013 and … Continue reading

Economists Embarrassed, Austerity a Much Less Credible Policy

(Review) Researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst failed to replicate the results of a 2010 study that was widely cited to support the policy of austerity, where government budgets are slashed in an attempt to improve economic performance through reducing levels of government debt. The researchers at Amherst informed the authors of the 2010 … Continue reading

What goes Up…

(Analysis) As anyone with even a casual interest in the history of trade knows, from time to time markets are subject to a frenzy. Prices are bid up to some extreme level – based on a flimsy reason that market participants choose to accept (for a time), until reality comes crashing home and prices dramatically … Continue reading

Hello, WNY Labor!

(Buffalo, NY) May you, the workers of WNY, enjoy this first installment of your paper. This is meant to be your paper of record. Wall Street and the titans of finance in NYC have their own paper – dedicated to their selfish interests, so why shouldn’t we have our own paper, too? Coverage and analysis … Continue reading