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Business and Labor

This category contains 38 posts

Estimate for Manufacturing Employment in Buffalo Area Indicates Improvement Since Recession Depths

(WNY) Officially released data for the Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY, metro area suggest continuation of a decades-long trend of decline in manufacturing employment. This negative trend is possibly weakening, though, as an estimate for the overall number of people employed in manufacturing during 2013 on an annual basis is higher than a simple trend estimate would … Continue reading

How Sweet It Is! Approaching a Recovery Milestone

(Analysis) This (final) quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014 will probably bring reports of many “real” measures of economic performance back to par with levels achieved before the recession of 2008-9 (see graph at top left). This should be cause for some celebration, coming after about 6 years of continuously depressed measurements … Continue reading

Economic Recovery in Buffalo Area Still Lagging Other US Metro Areas

(Buffalo, NY) Statistics released this year in September by the BEA indicate that the economic recovery in the Buffalo metro area is relatively sluggish. Growth of private-sector real GDP for each full year of recovery since the recession of 2008-9 is lower in the Buffalo metro area than for all US metro areas as a … Continue reading

Update – the Empire State Manufacturing Survey

(NYS) The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRB-NY) released its monthly report [pdf] about results from the Empire State Manufacturing Survey on November 15. Their analysis shows that overall manufacturing conditions in NYS have weakened – the current general index is in fact negative, where a negative reading indicates worsening business conditions. The weakening … Continue reading

Counteracting “Hysteresis”

(Analysis) Good observations and discussion about analysis showing estimates of lost potential in the US economy is ongoing. The analysis [pdf] suggests that through disuse, US factors of production are deteriorating, causing a longer period of time when the total value of goods and services capable of being produced in the US economy is reduced. … Continue reading

Putting a Number on the Damage Done

(Analysis) A paper [pdf], presented by employees of the Federal Reserve at an annual conference sponsored by the IMF, is getting deserved attention in various media outlets. This is important, if the analysis in the paper is ever going to contribute to policy-making here in the US. What the analysis shows is that there is … Continue reading

A Local Pro-Business Group Supports Lower Taxes and Fracking Upstate – No Surprise There

(WNY) A pro-business group, the Buffalo Niagara Partnership, announced its endorsement of a plan conceived by an anti-tax organization called Unshackle Upstate. Lower corporate franchise taxes in upstate NY and elimination of an energy assessment on manufacturers upstate are direct give-aways to business proposed in the plan. By Unshackle Upstate’s own estimates, these direct give-aways … Continue reading

Where’s the Oft-cited Local Renaissance in Manufacturing Employment?

(Buffalo, NY) Local politicians, business persons, and policy wonks have set their sites on (advanced) manufacturing as a pillar for local economic growth [pdf] – including growth of good-paying jobs. Unfortunately, wishful thinking tends to trump hard assessment of the facts. Whereas there has been an attempt to claim that employment in manufacturing is on … Continue reading

The Neglected and Forlorn American Worker

(Analysis) With hiring only still at anemic levels since the onslaught of the 2008-9 recession, many workers have simply given up hope of (ever?) finding a decent job, and they have left the labor force. Comparing a projection of the labor force participation rate from a study done by the BLS in 2002 with the … Continue reading

Is There a Growing Hole in the Official Economy? [Wonky]

(Analysis) Since the large job loss of the 2008-9 recession, reported measures of output and employment in the US economy remain very subdued. Good measures for labor utilization show no employment recovery of this production factor. Output remains depressed as well. Both measures strongly exhibit a (permanent?) shift downwards from the 2008-9 recession. An important … Continue reading