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The Damage Done: Recovery Would Now Require Massive Investment that Won’t be Soon Forthcoming

(Editorial) This content might be viewed as an informed observation based on continued non-recovery of the US economy. Economists have noted that factors of production can deteriorate through years of disuse. This is now likely occurring in the US. Many cite the case of WWII as an example when productivity proved resilient – after more … Continue reading

Is There a Growing Hole in the Official Economy? [Wonky]

(Analysis) Since the large job loss of the 2008-9 recession, reported measures of output and employment in the US economy remain very subdued. Good measures for labor utilization show no employment recovery of this production factor. Output remains depressed as well. Both measures strongly exhibit a (permanent?) shift downwards from the 2008-9 recession. An important … Continue reading

The Deathblow to Automatic Stabilizers

(Analysis) A true free-market revolution began with the Administration of President Ronald Reagan (R). The notion that the root of all problems in the US could be attributed to government became a rallying cry among a new breed of populists. This anti-government populism thrives today in the Tea-Party movement. It is very likely responsible for … Continue reading

New JOLTS Report Shows More of the Same: No Change to Employment Situation

(Analysis) The BLS released its report of analysis about the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) today. There are some snippets from the news release below. No surprises, really – just more of the same. “The number of job openings in May was 3.8 million, little changed from April.” “The number of job openings … Continue reading

“Onshoring” of Manufacturing Appears now to be mere Hype

(Analysis) Over the past couple of years, those supposedly in the “know” have spoken about a new phenomenon called “onshoring” – where production is brought back to the US – based on growing American competitiveness in high-skilled manufacturing, allegedly previously undetected inefficiencies from “offshoring”, and new sources of low-cost energy due to “fracking”. A quick … Continue reading

Surveillance in the Era of Big Data

(Review) Not too much to add to this post here (via Next New Deal)… using quite standard mathematical techniques and network analysis, the author is able to identify some very interesting characteristics of individuals from basic meta-data. This analysis is quite simple computationally today, and it is based on relatively unobtrusive monitoring of group membership. … Continue reading

The Growing American Rule-of-Law Deficit

(Analysis) Throughout much of US history, rule of law has been enshrined as a beacon to many parts of the world. Whereas other countries suffered from preferential treatment of elites, often aristocratic, the US rightly criticized such practices. Continued criticism by the US Government of other countries for failing to practice rule of law now … Continue reading

Utilizing Revealed Biases to Get a More Likely Forecast of Real GDP Growth [Wonky]

(Analysis) Forecasts of real GDP growth by the Federal Reserve System (Fed) have consistently been too optimistic since the end of the 2008-9 recession. Simply taking their June 2011 forecast for 2012 and comparing it to realized growth of real GDP in 2012, and doing the same for their June 2012 forecast for 2013 and … Continue reading

ADP Employment Report Shows More of the Same

(Analysis) Today’s employment report from the ADP Research Institute continues to show that private-sector employment is still below pre-recessionary levels, four years after the accepted end of the recession of 2008-9. This measure of lackluster economic performance does not even factor in an increase to the US population since the recession. While employment by service-providing … Continue reading

Update the Post Office for the 21st Century

(Analysis) The US Post Office is facing financial insolvency from its traditional “snail mail” service. Designed as a means to allow affordable home mail delivery for every US citizen – the private sector would price delivery for many recipients out of reach under a true market solution – technology and deregulation are eroding the ability … Continue reading